SCROLL FORECAST / LAKE ATLAS
The forecast assembles before the flood moves.
A glacial lake can fail in hours. GLOFcast watches the slower signals first: shoreline change, radar return, slope exposure, and downstream risk.
Day 0
Baseline shoreline.
HAZARD
18
Lake area, basin slope, and freeboard above the moraine dam establish the first state.
Day 0
Day 2
Day 4
Day 6
The instrument
Multi-modal satellite reads, paired with a 1B-parameter geospatial foundation model.
Sentinel-2 optical, Sentinel-1 SAR, and Copernicus 30m DEM feed a fine-tuned TerraMind/Prithvi-EO stack. Output: a 10-meter risk surface for every glacial lake larger than half a hectare across High Mountain Asia. Updated every six days.
Methodology card linked. Open data, open code, open models.
Why six days
The lead time the satellites can give us, on purpose.
A glacial lake outburst flood, once triggered, reaches the valley in three to twelve hours. Six days is the gap between a satellite revisit and a community evacuation. It is also the lead time GraphCast and GenCast use for global weather. We borrowed the cadence on purpose.
Design Exploration
Color Palette Proposals
A. Hazard amber × Glacier indigo
NASA/ESA/Stripe style. Amber = danger without aggressive red. Indigo = glacier/night sky.
Glacial Lake Risk Assessment
Monitoring active glacier dynamics across High Mountain Asia.
Hazard Level
Volume: 2.4M m³
Displacement
Velocity mapping active
B. Topographic editorial
National Geographic aesthetics. Warm earth + cold ice. More emotional, natural tones.
Glacial Lake Risk Assessment
Monitoring active glacier dynamics across High Mountain Asia.
Hazard Level
Volume: 2.4M m³
Displacement
Velocity mapping active
C. Soviet-modernist instrument
Radar-CRT amber & mint phosphor on dark slate panels.
Glacial Lake Risk Assessment
Monitoring active glacier dynamics across High Mountain Asia.
Hazard Level
Volume: 2.4M m³
Displacement
Velocity mapping active
GLOFcast
v0.3 · 2026-05-09 · open source
github.com/TripleAcodex/glofcast
aligned with UNESCO GLOFCA · not affiliated